Today's issue is the price of gasoline.

The Department of Energy determined that the price of gas is controlled by
The Price of Crude Oil - 73%
State and Federal Taxes - 11% (The federal tax is currently $0.184 per gallon)
Refining costs - 10%
Distribution and Marketing - 6% (This also includes the profits of the local stations and large oil companies).

Taxes are fixed, and the energy department monitors the other factors on a regular basis. As I will discuss below a gas tax holiday would save the average consumer about $60 ($30 by Barack Obama's calculation) over the summer. Stating that oil companaies could not make a profit would save less than half of that (see the chart above).

The most relevant is clearly the price of crude oil. There are two solutions - adjust the supply of oil and adjust the demand for it. Both are dubious. The supply of oil has reecently been augmented by the introduction of ethanol. Not only has this had no apparent effect on the price of gasoline, ethonal is less fuel-efficient and produces more carbon dioxide. In short, besides government subsidies and prefferential tax treatment it offers no noticable advantage, though a complete ethanol system may obviate the need for middle-eastern oil. Further, it has resulted in sharply higher food prices. Other supply-side solutions include drilling off the coasts and drilling in the Artic National Wildlife Refuge.

John McCain was once an ardent opponent of ethanol, but then he changed his mind in time for the Iowa Caucus this year. He has consistently opposed drilling in ANWR. The only solution he has proposed is a gas tax holiday for the summer, which, as Barack Obama noted, "would only give you about $30."

Barack Obama shares John McCain's view that more oil would not solve the problem. Additionally he thinks that American's need to change their lifestyles to use less gasoline in order to lower their costs (you use less, you pay less). Further he thinks that the problem is large oil companies fixing prices. As noted above, if he decided by fiat that oil companies could not make profits and that they had to lower their prices accordingly, the average consumer would save less than half what they would from the gas tax holiday. He has managed to counter a bad idea with one that is iconoclastically worse.

Today's issue comes from a John McCain speech a few days ago where the Arizona Senator sounded the alarm about Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton wanting to reduce gun owner's rights.

Perhaps ironically, John McCain has proposed legislation to make it more difficult to purchase guns at gun shows. From the Arizona Senator's website:

At a time when some were trying to shut down gun shows in the name of fighting crime, John McCain tried to preserve gun shows by standardizing sales procedures. Federal law requires licensed firearm sellers at gun shows to do an instant criminal background check on purchasers while private firearm sellers at gun shows do not have to conduct such a check. John McCain introduced legislation that would require an instant criminal background check for all sales at gun shows and believes that such checks must be conducted quickly to ensure that unnecessary delays do not effectively block transactions.

Barack Obama's position appears to be pro-gun:

As a former constitutional law professor, Barack Obama believes the Second Amendment creates an individual right, and he greatly respects the constitutional rights of Americans to bear arms.

and then he hedges his bets

He will protect the rights of hunters and other law-abiding Americans to purchase, own, transport, and use guns for the purposes of hunting and target shooting. He also believes that the right is subject to reasonable and commonsense regulation.

Interestingly, Congress managed to violate the previously inviolable Commerce Clause when it passed the "Gun Free School Zones Act" which made it a federal crime for a person to bring a gun to a school. The Supreme Court ruled that possession of a gun is not interstate commerce, and the law was unconstitutional. This raises the issue of whether the Illinois Senator will realize if one of his "commonsense" regulations violates the constitution. He has stated he supports the outright ban on handguns in the District of Columbia as way for reducing "illegal gun possession."

Hillary Clinton's position reflects incredible honesty:

I am against illegal guns, and illegal guns are the cause of so much death and injury in our country. I also am a political realist and I understand that the political winds are very powerful against doing enough to try to get guns off the street …

So, there you have it, she likes the idea of doing something, but admits that she can't.

My final thought is that the issue, is kind of silly because it relies on the false premise that control will necessarily yield less crime. John Stossel has gone over this issue in detail, and I won't rehash his reasoning here. He notes that there is no relation, because, like anything else, a black market will exist for illegal products and criminals will get their guns from there.

Social Security is codified in 42 USC Ch. 7 and has 21 seperate functions. Generally, it provides for the indigent, elderly, injured, and those who are any combination of the previous three or their children. The basic purpose of the law is paternalistic - some people cannot provide for themselves and their family, so the government chooses to help them. Pretty much every industrialized nation has a version of this social insurance. Of the three leading presidential contenders only Barack Obama has made his position clear on the issue, the other candidates have held their cards close to their chests making them hard to read.

The Social Security Administration explains the problem:

Based on the Trustees’ best estimate, program cost will exceed tax revenues starting in 2017 and throughout the remainder of the 75-year projection period. Social Security’s combined trust funds are projected to allow full payment of scheduled benefits until they become exhausted in 2041.

And they provide some solutions:

financial adequacy of the program for the next 75 years could be restored if increases were made equivalent to immediately and permanently increasing the Social Security payroll tax from its current level of 12.4 percent (for employees and employers combined) to 14.10 percent. Alternatively, changes could be made equivalent to reducing all current and future benefits by about 11.5 percent.

payroll taxes could be raised to finance scheduled benefits fully in every year starting in 2041. In this case, the payroll tax would be increased to 15.94 percent at the point of trust fund exhaustion in 2041 and continue rising to 16.60 percent in 2082. Similarly, benefits could be reduced to the level that is payable with scheduled tax rates in each year beginning in 2041. Under this scenario, benefits would be reduced 22 percent at the point of trust fund exhaustion in 2041, with reductions reaching 25 percent in 2082.

Barack Obama

supports increasing the maximum amount of earnings covered by Social Security and he will work with Congress and the American people to choose a payroll tax reform package that will keep Social Security solvent for at least the next half century.

John McCain,

believes that we may meet our obligations to the retirees of today and the future without raising taxes. [He] supports supplementing the current Social Security system with personal accounts .

The idea of private accounts isn't entirely new, but it has gained some traction in recent years. As the report notes, individuals could invest a portion of their Social Security taxes into a series of mutual funds and earn a higher rate of return than they would on by allowing the government to invest the money in government bonds. This could make up the tax/benefit gap I discussed above, but only after a phase-in period which would cost somewhere between $600B and $3T.

Hillary Clinton is largely mum on the topic, other than to say she disagrees with private accounts because

1) privatization leaves retirees vulnerable to stock market fluctuations or poor individual investment decisions.
2) the current Social Security system is progressive and assists women and families by indexing benefits to those who earn less. Women especially would be disadvantaged by a privatized system because they would have lower annual account deposits and would likely lose the advantage of spousal benefits.
3) fully one-third of payroll taxes are used to cover disabled workers and survivors. It is uncertain how the federal government could afford to pay these benefits if a percentage of the payroll tax is diverted into individual accounts.
4) the projected cost of changing to a privatized system while continuing to pay current benefits is estimated to be several trillion dollars in just the first decade, an unfunded liability that we can not afford.

I'll respond to Mrs. Clinton's concerns
1) The selection of mutual funds can be limited (to the TSP funds, for instance) to avoid a substantially risky investment. This is what a group of city workers in Texas did.
2) Of course, if you put nothing into the system, you get less out. This is an opportunity to advantage workers, not to punish non-workers.
3) The portion of SS Tax that goes to disability insurance will still go there.
4) This concern is legitimate, it is unclear where that money would come from.

Until next time.

If you missed SNL this week-end, it is worth seeing this clip 'fake' ad for the Democrats on Obama and Hillary.

It seems to say what has already been said here:
-Hillary is looking at 2012.
-Obama appeals to young people.
-Hillary is appealing to working class whites.
-The two have become a joke.

As John McCain recently said that he hopes the Democrats "continue fighting over the nomination even beyond their convention." Yeah. He also put in a good appearance this week-end on SNL.

Continue reading "Monday Madness" »

It's Friday, the weather is rather bi polar in DC and well whatever.....Fry Time!

Obama is coming back hard at Republicans saying he is not going to wuss against the terrorists.

Apparently, McCain is having problems with the Dems attacking him for not being tough enough with Hamas. How can a party that obviously sympathizes with Palestine fake any credibility on this topic?? Really? It's one thing to feel sorry for a war torn country's citizens, it is something else to feel sorry for a

Continue reading "FriDay Fry Up! " »

Today's issue is when there should no longer be a substantial American military presence in Iraq, and what the candidates think about it.

John McCain stated today that he feels there will no longer be a substantial presence in Iraq after 2003. At that point he believes all threats to the United States and the region will be squelched.

Hillary Clinton would

support the appointment of a high level U.N. representative -- similar to those appointed in Afghanistan, Bosnia, and Kosovo -- to help broker peace among the parties in Iraq.

Barack Obama states he would have all combat troops redeployed from Iraq within 11 months of taking office. However, he voted against S.Amdt. 4442 to S. 2766 which would have effectively done that. He says that he would establish a long-term goal of having "regional cooperation" which would increase regional stability. He would mitigate the short-term choas by being

a tough negotiator with Syria and Iran, sending a clear message that they need to stop meddling in Iraq’s affairs.

All three of these seem somewhat idealistic to me. I would willing put John McCain's reasoning in blockquote if I could find it. However, it isn't there and I have no idea why he thinks all will be resolved in four years. The basic difference between HRC's and BHO's plans are the identity of the master negotiater who will end all of the region's problems. HRC doesn't seem to know, but feels that someone at the United Nations could do the job. Her reasoning seems to be that this worked in Afganistan, Bosnia and Kosovo - I guess expecting a different result from those situations isn't too outrageuos (only Bosnia is presently stable). BHO thinks that he is the "tough negotiator" who could make things happen. I am unable to find any source that believes he is a tough negotiator outside of his own websites and others which quote his.

Things are getting kind of strange these days. The stress between Hillary and Obama seems to be making people fidget. And the news stories are starting to get strange.

Just in case you did not know that Barack Obama is a good christian man, check out this ad. It seems a little over the top. The message is clearly meant to fix his reputation after the hits taken to the campaign by Rev. Wright's antics.

But now it is getting really weird, John Edwards is getting >cozy with Obama to be the V.P. one hazard to guess?

Continue reading "Weirdness.." »

Good News on the Today show on Monday, Suze Orman said that the economy will be speeding up again soon, even as foreclosures keep going up...so the Liberals should sit down and be quiet. The economy is still better now than it was at the lowest points during the Clinton presidency.

Anyways, so Hillary won West Virginia, that is interesting, but did you really doubt it in a state like West Virginia? She totally appeals to working class white people with her union talk and all...but get this in the state Fox found that the Democrats thought this:

And speaking of trouble spots for Obama, 47 percent think Obama is honest and trustworthy; a majority — 51 percent — say he is not.

So, the question is, do the Superdelegates of the Democrats really support Hillary because they think data (like the data listed below) collected by Fox News is true. Most of the states have selected Obama but maybe the Democrats are fearful that most of the country will think the way
people in West Virginia think:

Most West Virginians voting in the Democratic primary say they have been negatively affected by the current economic conditions — 46 percent “a great deal” and 43 percent “somewhat.” These economic voters showed more support for Clinton, 67 percent, than for Obama, 30 percent.

Clinton called on her husband, former President Bill Clinton, to campaign for her in this state that he won twice. Fully 61 percent said Bill Clinton’s campaigning was important to their vote — including 37 percent who said it was very important — and 79 percent of those who were influenced by his appearances voted for Hillary Clinton.

Rev. Jeremiah Wright continues to be a thorn in Obama’s side. Many voters — 49 percent — think Obama shares the controversial views of his former minister. Evidently, this is not a good thing, since 83 percent of the voters who feel this way voted for Clinton.

The big question of the campaign remains: should Clinton drop out of the race? Clinton voters are still holding out for a Clinton comeback — 78 percent said they would prefer she wins the nomination, even if the race continues for months; 17 percent prefer the race ends as soon as possible, even if Clinton loses the nomination.

(Continued)

Continue reading "Hillary Won West Virginia" »

Today's issue is Veterans' Education. After World War II Congress passed the GI Bill which gives quallified veterans a monthly stipend while they are recieving some sort of approved post-secondary education. Currently, the benefits last for 36 months (which is a fixed amount of money during four years of school if you take the summer and J-term off). Presently, 30% of eligible veterans do not use a dime of the benefit, and 8% use all of it.

Jim Webb would have benefit swelled to full tuition for four years of instate schooling plus a $1000k per month stipend. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have signed on to the bill, John McCain has not. Hillary Clinton discusses this on her briefly website. Barack Obama skipped the hearing where the matter was debated. John McCain, said he would rather pay for it by reducing "pork-barrel" projects than by increasing taxes on those earning over $500k a year.

The Defense Department has two primary complaints to the bill: 1) It is too expensive, and offers a broad sweeping reform that is not needed and 2) It would encourage people to get out of the service and go to school rather than stay-in. The original purpose of the GI Bill was to prevent massive veteran unemployment after WWII. That fear makes occassional appearences, but the labor department notes that the unemployment rate among veterans is generally below that of the rest of the population.

Hey Readers, sorry for the delay, we have been revamping things here at Polireport. So if you noticed a lack of entries over the last few days, it was just a little housework. Thanks for your patience.

Today. What you already know is

Hillary Clinton is no "quitter," her defiant campaign said Tuesday, eyeing a crushing win in West Virginia even as her White House rival Barack Obama homed in on the Democratic nomination.

This article from Breitbart.com clearly states what we all know-Hillary will not quit.Come on she didn't drop that bird Bill, why would she drop this bigger fatter hen? Yet people keep talking about Hillary as if they can make her stop ! And Hillary is the headline for Drudge today. Well, big deal who cares? If anything is clear in a very strange election, it's that Hillary is not going to quit without blood on the ground. She will if nothing else ruin it for Obama so that she can run again in 2012-since McCain has clearly stated that he is not going to run for two terms. That means she has a clear shot to the front in four years if she can't nail the presidency now, or um, win it now, ehem.

So get over it People, that's how it is, like it or lump it, you better just accept it. Except the funny part about how Hillary is getting all the times she made promises she could not keep back in her face. It's just too funny when the same constituency that once loved her is now not so loving...

Now if only people could stop making Curious George shirts for Obama.

In some regards, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John McCain have different views. In other cases they are playing off the exact same set of music. Today's issue comes from this article which frontpages the issue of whether the cap and trade program proposed by John McCain would effectively reduce carbon emissions. BO and HC seem to have identical plan's to the Arizona Senator.

COM (my moniker for all three of them without difference) would have an annual auction of carbon credits. A credit would probably be a metric ton of carbon dioxode, that's not too much, according to the EPA my current lifestyle expends about a metric ton of CO2 equivalent every 19 days. Anyway, these credits are limited to some fixed decreasing annual amount set by Congressional fiat. If a business produces carbon, and doesn't have a credit it faces a fine. That's the cap part. However, rather than pay the fine, the business can elect to buy more offsets on the free market. That's the trade part.

The obvious downside is that there is no way some businesses are going to be able to exist. As a result COM recognizes there will be an increase in unemployment.

Beyond that, I'm skeptical about whether the cap would really work. HRC and JMC are tight lipped on how they would spend the money. However, Barack Obama mentions that he would spend the revenue

generated by auctioning allowances will be used to support the development of clean energy, to invest in energy efficiency improvements, and to address transition costs, including helping American workers affected by this economic transition.

It's the Friday Fry Up, and it's rainy and icky here...so not much to be said....

Last week this blogger met the local limited government candidate who is trying to run against Jim Moran. Amit Singh, you can check out his website at www.Amit08.com. The Republican primary is going to happen very soon between Mark Ellmore and Singh. It will probably really be of little interest since in the end Jim Moran has been in office for a long time and doesn't seem to be going anywhere...The best shot the Republicans had of getting him out of office was years ago in 2002-2003 when he was caught swearing in public and making anti semitic statements. Or maybe it was when the Congressman got caught fighting with a prostitute in the streets of Arlington one night...a few years ago...but no one seems to care now...

Anyways....

Continue reading "Fry Day-Soggy Fry Up " »

There are rumors inside the beltway from Stacy McCain that Hillary will drop out by June 15.

That is hard to believe since Hillary should have dropped out at least twice by now, once when Obama won so many important states to start and again when she got caught in the Bosnia lie. Well..there is also the Bill factor, can she quit and hand it over to someone else when she has made it so clear that she has sacrificed everything herself and cannot stand for anyone else to have what she has paid so dearly for in her raging codependent relationship with Bill.....

This brings to mind, then who will McCain pick for V.P.?

Last week this blogger was appalled to hear a local women spouting on the DC metro that the military is now letting known pedophiles into the military. It was an obvious lie, based on the recent news that the military was granting more moral waivers to get recruits. That means they are allowing people who have records that involve minor felonies like traffic violations for example, which are a common felony in the state of Virginia, to join the military.

Of course since we are in a time when people who support Obama, and she was an Obama supporter, don't want more people to join the military..that leaves only one interpretation of the news which is just offensive to hear but to these anti war types it comes out as the military allowing the most loathsome people on the planet-CHILD MOLESTORS-into the military.

Continue reading "Who Has the Honor?" »

It's Friday, you don't need to be told that, it's the Fry Up, but, we are just frying one or two thoughts today..because this blogger is moving apartments.

The New York Times has decided that Hillary Clinton might actually have a chance, because Obama has had a bad month with Reverand Wright making it so clear he doesn't really want a black President and all...Pennylvania, Indiana as if those states really mattered..because if this were a fair race, if the Democrats were like the Republicans at all, they would have made Hillary quit. Hillary made it clear though that she would not be doing that when she stuck to running despite Bill's antics and despite being caught as a liar about her Bosnia trip. People, she is with it to the bitter end, and if she can't have it, no one can....it's like the movie 'Single White Female' except she is not single and young and...heh. The movie should be called 'Raging Codependent White Female' in reference to her relationship with Bill and the way she treats people.

So here is the New York Times Article.

Continue reading "Friday Fry Up " »

You gotta love a campaign that sends out press releases twice a day. And one that knows how to gin up the Amazon statistics!!!!!!!! HA!

Ron Paul #1 on Amazon

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: Jesse Benton

April 30, 2008 703-248-9115

ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA – Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul is no stranger to success on the internet. Today, he set another milestone as his new book “The Revolution: A Manifesto” hit number one on the online retailers “Hot New Releases in Books” list. The book’s official release is today, April 30th.

Dr. Paul held a book signing with over 1,000 attendees in New York City on Monday, April 28th at the Borders on Wall Street. Store employees commented that it was one of the biggest events they ever held at their flagship location.

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Continue reading "Ron Paul # 1 on Amazon?!" »

Reverend Wright's speech in Washington, DC yesterday really did nothing for Obama's campaign. Although it did certainly make it clear that Wright is all about attention and cares little for anyone else. In fact, one has to wonder if he cares about Obama winning at all because he is not behaving in the way that would help Obama. Really, Wright could have waited 8 months and done no harm...instead..well, read ABC's The Note and check out this quote on Wright:

"He clearly was not doing Obama any favors, not only by reappearing before a ravenous media thus distracting from Obama's attempt to relate better to white working class voters in Indiana and North Carolina, but by implying Obama's condemnation of some of his sermons was not sincere."

Continue reading "Should Obama Get a Break?" »

Sheesh, It's Monday, it's rainy in DC-think torrential flood, can't they think of something more interesting than this to write for a headline?

RP2008 New Logo Letterhead-VA-Header copy

Ron Paul Southwest Regional Coordinator Available for Comment on Nevada GOP Convention

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: Jesse Benton

April 28, 2008 703-248-9115

ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA – Ron Paul 2008 Southwest Regional Coordinator Jeff Greenspan is available for interview or comment on the Nevada GOP’s irregular behavior at last weekend’s Nevada State Republican Convention.

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Continue reading "Ooh, Regional Coordinator Available for Comment" »

Friday Fry Up. The weather is nice and the day is somewhat bland.

Troubles in NYC over a shooting and the court's decision.

In his closing arguments, prosecutor Charles Testagrossa alluded to the starkly different views of the shooting.

"If you are a police officer or sympathetic to police officers, the defendants are tragic heroes and the victims are thugs," he said. "If you are friends of the victims, then the defendants are murderers."

None of the officers took the witness stand in his own defense.

Continue reading "Friday Fry Up" »

One must not be too hasty to judge a man running for President of the United States....or one can be super judgemental! Tomorrow Ron Paul will be making an appearance in Idaho.

Ron Paul Freedom Rally at The

College of Idaho April 25

Contact: Jesse Benton

Phone: 703-248-9115

For Immediate Release

April 23, 2008

Who: Republican congressman and presidential candidate Ron Paul

What:

Ron Paul Freedom Rally at The College of Idaho

Jewett Auditorium

2112 Cleveland Blvd., Caldwell, ID 83605

Friday, April 25th, 4:00 PM MT

Dr. Paul will have press availability in Boone 127 at 3:30 – 4:00 pm.

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