Earlier I wrote about how the race for the Senate is by far the most important event occurring in the world right now. Let's talk briefly about each race.
Definite Democrat pickups:
Alaska -- Ted Stevens has long been my least favorite Republican. After being convicted, he's gone...even in this state. The iron triangle of Young, Murkowski and Stevens that ruled so long may all be gone after this election. This may be close-ish, but it's not going to be won by a convincted felon.
Colorado -- Bob Schaeffer never seemed to do much in this race. Mark Udall by double digits or close.
New Mexico -- Guess they should've nominated Heather Wilson who lost a bruising primary to another Congresman, Steve Pearce. Instead we may lose 2 congressional seats and the Senate seat. Good work GOP!
Oregon -- In another environment, maybe Gordon Smith survives. But he's going to lose to a nobody. I know lots of people have this in the competitive camp, but I am not one of them.
Virginia -- Republican John Warner retired, and former Guv Democrat Mark Warner -- who once ran against him -- is going to destroy former VA and RNC Chair (and presidential candidate!) Jim Gilmore. If Gilmore keeps it under 20%, I'd be surprised.
Likely pickups:
North Carolina -- I have no idea how Liddy Dole has managed to fall behind, but she has and in almost every poll. Unless she comes up with a gamechanger, she loses. It's definitely possible and I almost put this in the tossup category, but the fact that she is in a tight race says alot about her political skills and her chances of narrowing the gap.
New Hampshire -- Sununu raised alot of money and waited until late in the game to spend it. He's coming back in the polls, but it's hard to see him winning in this political environment, especially as the northeast increasingly becomes blue.
Tossup:
Norm Coleman -- 3 way race. Minnesota. Who knows? The NRSC just dropped a mailer attacking Al Franken that was roundly criticized. Did that tie Coleman to the GOP in voters' minds or give Coleman a chance to separate himself from the GOP? It's his only chance to survive.
For those of you keeping score, the Democrats have 51 seats (including socialist Bernie Sanders of VT and Joe Lieberman of CT). Assume that Democrats win all the above races, and they will hold 59 seats in the Senate.
That 60th seat would be quiet valuable then. What are the Democrats' chances for a 60th seat?
Republican leaners:
Georgia -- The good news for Republicans is that first term senator Saxby Chambliss has never been behind in the polls. The bad news is that he led by 20% a few months ago against a relative unknown. One sorta has to assume that Chambliss limps it home unless he is overcome by a wave of black turnout. Given black voter enthusiasm and white working class discord with his vote for the bailout, it's definitely not impossible that he loses. Still, he should be a pretty large favorite still.
Kentucky -- The race is tight, but McConnell has stayed ahead the whole way, like in Georgia.
Mississippi -- Although a recent poll has it at one point, another poll has it at 11. If Wicker loses to Democratic former guv Ronnie Musgrove, he should be embarrassed. Wicker should hold on, but this won't be an 11% victory for Wicker, I'll predict that.
I'd put the GOP's chances of winning each seat at about 80%. Looking over at Nate Silver's 538, I see that he has them all at about 75%, so I'm in pretty good company.
3 seats at 75% (to make the math easy), and Democrats only have to win one of them (assuming Coleman loses) to get to 60 votes. If these were independent events, that would mean that Republicans were not favorites to stymie Democrat attempts at a filibuster proof majority. However, they are not independent events. Black turnout is an undetermined factor. Undecided white voters are probably conservative-leaning voters, but not too happy with George Bush. My guess is that all 3 survive, but it's pretty crazy that I now have to estimate Democrats' chances of having 60 votes (also assuming Lieberman doesn't flip, but I doubt he will) at around 35%.
Two quick notes:
1. If I were running any GOP candidates campaign right now, I want undecided voters thinking about my candidate, "He's not George W. Bush." Anyway I can get those voters to think that, I would be looking into hard.
2. Barack Obama's campaign made a colossal mistake in running that over-the-top infomercial instead of spending that money in Kentucky and Georgia.